ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 0900 UTC SUN OCT 15 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 21 12(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 22 13(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) MANZANILLO 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 187N 1046W 34 42 7(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 12 187N 1046W 50 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 12 187N 1046W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 197N 1044W 34 10 13(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 24 197N 1044W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 197N 1044W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 205N 1044W 34 1 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 36 205N 1044W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 205N 1044W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 30 20 0 0 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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