ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 800 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2006 DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN THE FORM OF A NICELY CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NOT MUCH OF A CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONG THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH AT 12Z WERE 55...45...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. THE UW/CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CI ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 35 KT...BUT RECENT RAW NUMBERS ARE HIGHER. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES. WE WILL SEE WHETHER THE BANDED STRUCTURE PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS DUE SHORTLY SHOULD SHED MORE LIGHT ON HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE IS. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE NORMAN IS STILL OVER WARM WATER AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE APPARENT STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND WELL ABOVE THE GFDL. REGARDLESS OF WHAT NORMAN DOES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AFTER THAT SHOULD BE QUITE HOSTILE AND INDUCE WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6. NORMAN IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET TURNING NORMAN SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND BAM MODELS TAKE NORMAN OFF SMARTLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS THAT LIE AHEAD OF NORMAN...I BELIEVE THE LATTER SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 15.8N 117.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 16.8N 117.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 18.2N 117.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/1200Z 21.5N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/1200Z 22.5N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 09-Oct-2006 14:50:03 UTC