ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006 MIRIAM CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT ISLA CLARION REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 29 KT AND GUSTS TO 45 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 3.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. MIRIAM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS...GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. A 0537 UTC AMSU PASS HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER. THE FORWARD MOTION IS ONLY 015/4...SINCE MIRIAM IS EMBEDED WITHIN RATHER WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN MORE TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 19.2N 113.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 19.9N 113.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 20.7N 113.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 21.5N 114.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 22.5N 115.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 21/1200Z 25.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 17-Sep-2006 14:45:03 UTC