| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Tropical Depression KRISTY (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 PM PDT THU SEP 07 2006
 
ONE COULD ARGUE THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN UNABLE TO SUSTAIN ANY ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE LAST 36 TO 48 HOURS...SO ITS LIFE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PROBABLY...IF NOT ALREADY...COMING TO AN END.
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CELLS HAVE BEEN FORMING WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVEN
AS THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN.
 
KRISTY HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 245/9 AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONGER
TRADES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN ORDER TO INCORPORATE THE RECENT MOTION...
WHICH IS SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.  KRISTY IS
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TAKE ON A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN 24 HOURS
AND COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY DAY 3.
 
ASSUMING KRISTY HAS NO MORE SURPRISES UP ITS SLEEVE...THIS WILL BE
THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 15.4N 131.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 15.1N 132.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N 133.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 15.0N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 15.0N 136.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
 
NNNN