ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT THU SEP 07 2006 KRISTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH NO REAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 19N132W MAY BE PRODUCING SOME SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN 6 HR AGO. KRISTY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST KRISTY TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AT A FAIRLY SLOW SPEED...WITH THE NOGAPS CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO STALL NEAR 16N132W AFTER 24 HR. THAT IS PROBABLY TOO SLOW. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR KRISTY TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR 96 HR JUST NORTH OF AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS. AFTER THAT...IT CALLS FOR A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. KRISTY REMAINS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26-27C...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STAY LIGHT FOR 48-60 HR. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF KRISTY STRENGTHENING BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LIMITED CONVECTION AND ENTRAINMENT OF STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS INTO THE CIRCULATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THE CONVECTION WILL RETURN. HOWEVER...AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO HAS KRISTY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 12-24 HR IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN. EVEN IF STRENGTHENING DOES OCCUR...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 60 HR RESULTING IN EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY 120 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 16.5N 129.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 16.5N 131.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 16.5N 132.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 16.5N 134.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 16.5N 135.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 16.5N 138.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 16.5N 141.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 12/0600Z 16.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC