ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006 THE EARLIER BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR KRISTY HAVE MORPHED INTO BANDS... GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF TWO HOOKING-TYPE BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. THIS MIGHT BE A CONSERVATIVE FIGURE IF THE CENTER IS A LITTLE MORE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION THAN WE THINK. THE INTENSITY EVOLUTION FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS APPEARS TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS... STABLE AIR ENTRAINED FROM THE NORTH... AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE... A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY... AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS THIS GENERAL IDEA AND WAS THE MAIN TOOL FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF KRISTY. SMALL SYSTEMS ARE SOMEWHAT NOTORIOUS FOR THEIR RAPID CHANGES IN INTENSITY THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST... 280/10... THOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM MOTION IS EVEN FASTER. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A MIDDLE- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD STEER KRISTY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER... THE RIDGE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE... CAUSING THE STORM TO HEAD GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A SMIDGE TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGES IN CONVECTION... THEN MODIFIED TO ADJUST FOR TYPICAL MOTION ASYMMETRIES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 16.7N 122.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 17.1N 124.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 17.5N 126.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 17.7N 128.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 17.7N 129.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 17.7N 132.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 17.7N 135.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 10/1800Z 17.7N 138.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC