ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY OF KRISTY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE FLARE UP INDICATED IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY PACKAGE IS NOW DIMINISHING AS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE -50 DEGREES CELSIUS OR LESS IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. PREVIOUS QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS AND RECENT NESDIS-CIRA AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HOLD KRISTY AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...DVORAK CLASSIFICATION NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR INTENSITY ESTIMATES. FOR THIS ADVISORY...KRISTY WILL REMAIN AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BASED ON THE AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BUT KRISTY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES THAT KRISTY WILL REMAIN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...EASTERLY SHEAR OF 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING...AND COULD BRING ABOUT WEAKENING. LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL. THE PRESENT MOTION OF KRISTY IS ESTIMATED AT 260/2 WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY BEGAN TO SLIDE BACK TOWARD THE WEST. ALL MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH KRISTY REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO MOVES KRISTY BACK TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLOW PACE AND INCREASING EASTERLIES DURING THE MIDDLE TIME PERIOD WILL ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE IN A CONTINUED WESTWARD DIRECTION. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PROJECTED TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAIRLY CLOSELY. THIS IS ALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 17.8N 118.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 17.8N 118.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 17.8N 119.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 18.0N 120.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.4N 122.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER SISKO/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC