ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2006 AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST....AND FROM SANTE FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS...AND FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO MAZATLAN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.3W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.3W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.8W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.6N 104.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.4N 106.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.8N 107.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 103.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC