ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR... ALONG WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN IN CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA... IS DISRUPTING THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. EVIDENCE OF THIS IS DISPLAYED ON SATELLITE PICTURES WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER SEEN OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST OF THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGES... THE EXACT CENTER OF JOHN IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SURFACE WINDS AT SANTA ROSALIA HAVE SHIFTED FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE PAST 3 HOURS.. SO THE CENTER IS LIKELY WEST OF THAT LOCATION. CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA MOSTLY IN ONSHORE FLOW. FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AND JOHN COULD DISSIPATE TOMORROW. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT JOHN HAS SLOWED A LITTLE.. NOW 325/6. THIS GENERAL TRACK SEEMS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER STAYS SOMEWHAT COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN GENERAL THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE GFDL/GFS KEEP SHIFTING WILDLY FROM A MORE WESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK WHILE THE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A TOUCH TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF JOHN TOMORROW... AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 27.6N 112.7W 35 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.4N 113.2W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 04/1800Z 29.4N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 05/0600Z 30.2N 114.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC