ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006 800 PM PDT WED AUG 23 2006 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY COOLER INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS THIS EVENING...AND A MORE DISTINCT...LESS RAGGED...30 NMI EYE. WATER VAPORY IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW JET OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...WHERE THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS RESIDE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...WITH A CIRA AMSU-A ESTIMATE AT 102 KT...AND AN ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 117 KT FROM CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REMAINS AT 105 KT. THERE STILL IS A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF FURTHER STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE ...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE A WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST COMMENCES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/12. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THE 18Z GFDL RUN HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON IT'S RAPID NORTHWARD MOTION INTO THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS...NOW INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT BEYOND DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST BY DAY 4...REFLECTING THE LOW-LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE SOCORRO ISLAND OBSERVATION AND A CIRA/NESDIS AMSU-A TC SIZE ESTIMATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 19.4N 113.5W 105 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.1N 114.9W 110 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 20.7N 116.3W 100 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 21.2N 117.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 21.6N 118.4W 70 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 121.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 22.5N 123.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC