ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006 A 15Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT HECTOR WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...WITH SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40 KT VECTORS...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS VERY LIMITED CONVECTION AND HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN OVER 23C WATERS. WESTERLY SHEAR IS STRONG AND NOT FORECAST TO ABATE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/6. HECTOR HAS APPARENTLY BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH CONVECTION FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO DEFLECT THE MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AS THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY...A LEFTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS GUIDANCE...WITH MOST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWING A MORE ABRUPT WESTWARD TURN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 22.3N 135.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 22.8N 136.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 23.3N 137.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 23/0600Z 23.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/1800Z 24.0N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC