ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 200 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006 CONVECTION THAT HAD EARLIER BEEN CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS BENN SHEARED OFF TOWARD THE SOUTH...MAKING LOCATION AND MOTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE LOCATION AND STRUCTURE ANALYSIS WAS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL SATELLITE WIND RETRIEVALS. WHILE SOME CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTH...THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE. WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...TROPICAL STORM HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMAND LOW IN 24 HOURS...AS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOW 310/6 KT...AND SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT SLOWER AND MORE TO THE LEFT AS HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AS A REMNANT LOW. THE 12-FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT RADII WERE BASED ON THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL WHICH VERIFIED WELL WITH A SHIP OBSERVATION 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF HECTOR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 21.2N 135.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 21.8N 136.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 22/0600Z 22.3N 136.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/1800Z 22.6N 137.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/0600Z 23.0N 139.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/0600Z 23.6N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC