ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS AND EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...35 KT. GILMA SHOULD MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY RELAXED EASTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS...PROVIDING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. AFTERWORDS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SSTS AFTER DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IN 72 HOURS OR LESS. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE BAMM AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TURN GILMA TOWARD THE NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH FORMS THE BASIS OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFDL...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWS THE SYSTEM DRIFTING WITHIN THE WEAKNESS AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE GFDL...AND THE GFS BETA ADVECTION MEDIUM LAYER MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 13.8N 105.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 14.4N 106.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 15.1N 107.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 15.5N 109.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 15.7N 110.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 16.6N 114.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 21.0N 119.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC