ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY 36 GHZ DATA FROM THE AMSR-E INSTRUMENT AT 0939 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 60 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE CI AND DATA-T NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. DESPITE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 24C...EMILIA IS HOLDING ITS OWN QUITE WELL. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER SOME MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN EMILIA TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/11. THE STEERING MECHANISM OF EMILIA HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO IDENTIFY...AND MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A LEFT BIAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT EMILIA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NORTHWEST MOTION IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...A POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT EMILIA WILL JUST PARALLEL THE BAJA COAST THROUGH DISSIPATION. A 1200 UTC SHIP...MQYA3...REPORTED AT NORTHWEST WIND AT 30 KT AROUND 50 N MI WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY...THE WIND RADII WERE REDUCED ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. LAND STATIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED A PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 24.7N 113.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.7N 114.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 26.6N 116.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 27.1N 117.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.5N 118.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1200Z 28.0N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC