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Tropical Storm EMILIA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN
55 KT AND SO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
EMILIA HAS PEAKED AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS.  EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 48
HOURS AND BE DISSIPATED BY 72 HOURS.
 
EMILIA HAS AGAIN VEERED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 340/11.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN
WHICH CONSISTS OF A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA.  ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
WEAK TROUGH HAS FORMED WEST OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN
A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT
MOTION AND THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE FAR RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE MODEL
SUITE THROUGH 24 HOURS AND NEAR THE CONU CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXISTS DURING THE
LATER STAGES OF THE FORECAST. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS IS WHETHER THE REMNANT LOW FROM EMILIA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
WEST TO BE STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES OR FAR ENOUGH EAST
TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE GFS BASED BAM MODELS BUT SLOWER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK REPRESENTS A LARGER THAN NORMAL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
 
GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION AND ANTICIPATED TRACK...IT IS NOW NECESSARY
TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 21.8N 111.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 23.1N 112.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N 114.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.5N 115.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 26.2N 116.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 26.8N 118.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 
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