ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED WITH INCREASING CONVECTION SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. DESPITE THE RECENT ORGANIZATION...EMILIA'S OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS SMALL AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 12 HOURS WITH WEAKENING INDICATED THEREAFTER. EMILIA IS LOCATED WITHIN A LARGE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHICH MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED WELL. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUE AN OVERALL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GFDL AGAIN TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARDS WHILE THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND ALONG THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH 24 HOURS. SUBSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST IS SHOWN UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA COULD BE TOO FAR EAST FOR THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO TURN IT WESTWARD. GIVEN THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE LATER STAGES OF THE FORECAST...A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN. NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SSM/I DERIVED OCEAN WINDS REQUIRE AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS CHANGE NOW WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 20.6N 111.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 21.8N 112.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 23.3N 114.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 24.3N 115.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 25.2N 116.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 28/1200Z 25.8N 119.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC