ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 DANIEL REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN 127 KT. THE CURRENT SUBJECTIVE ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS IS 132 KT. THEREFORE ...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL REMAIN 130 KT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 280/11. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT WESTWARD AND FASTER. THE GFDL MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION...CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL THAT TURNS THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD SOONER AS A TROUGH DIGS TO THE NORTHWEST OF DANIEL. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL 120-HOUR FORECAST POSITION DID SHIFT WESTWARD ABOUT 300 N MI FROM THE EARLIER GUIDANCE. THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND UKMET SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 6 KT AS DANIEL MOVES INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...BUT STILL KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS FASTER AND SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...MAINLY AFTER 48 HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED. SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER. AS SUCH...THE WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST...WHICH USES THE PREVIOUS INTERPOLATED OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THAT WAS OVER COOLER WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 13.9N 130.8W 130 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 14.2N 132.5W 120 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 14.6N 134.5W 110 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 15.1N 136.4W 100 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 15.6N 138.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 16.5N 140.2W 75 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 142.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 19.0N 145.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC