ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 30 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) X(44) X(44) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) X(38) X(38) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 14(34) X(34) X(34) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 316N 596W 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 316N 596W 50 81 8(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 12 316N 596W 64 51 11(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 24 334N 605W 34 32 57(89) 5(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 24 334N 605W 50 4 57(61) 11(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 24 334N 605W 64 1 35(36) 9(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 36 368N 605W 34 1 15(16) 59(75) 8(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 36 368N 605W 50 X 1( 1) 40(41) 8(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) 36 368N 605W 64 X X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 48 415N 590W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 47(53) 10(63) X(63) X(63) 48 415N 590W 50 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) 48 415N 590W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 72 500N 500W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) 72 500N 500W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 72 500N 500W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 75 70 60 50 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART NNNN
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