| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane HELENE (Text)

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
0900 UTC THU SEP 21 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 301N  565W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 301N  565W 50 90   5(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 301N  565W 64 60  14(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 
 24 328N  553W 34 29  65(94)   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 24 328N  553W 50  1  67(68)  11(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 24 328N  553W 64  X  42(42)  13(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
 36 356N  527W 34  X  22(22)  61(83)   8(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 36 356N  527W 50  X   1( 1)  49(50)  11(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 36 356N  527W 64  X   X( X)  26(26)   7(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
 48 385N  487W 34  X   X( X)  14(14)  52(66)  11(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 48 385N  487W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  30(31)   9(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 48 385N  487W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
 
 72 439N  391W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  43(43)  10(53)   X(53)
 72 439N  391W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   5(21)   X(21)
 72 439N  391W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
 
 96 480N  300W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  28(31)   7(38)
 96 480N  300W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)
 96 480N  300W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
 
120 530N  220W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  14(21)
120 530N  220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
120 530N  220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     85     90      85      75      65      60      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN