ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 0300 UTC WED AUG 02 2006 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 4(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 5(26) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27) 5(32) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 9(26) 3(29) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 27(33) 7(40) 2(42) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) X(18) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 27(46) 3(49) 1(50) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 2(21) X(21) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 7(21) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 5(26) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 9(26) 3(29) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 1(17) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 4(19) 1(20) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 15(37) 2(39) X(39) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 8(25) 1(26) X(26) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 4(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) PONCE 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN 34 X 16(16) 16(32) 3(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) SAN JUAN 50 X 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) SAN JUAN 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 27(29) 5(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 11(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT THOMAS 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 1 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) SAINT CROIX 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 38 5(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) SAINT MAARTEN 50 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 9 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 189N 633W 34 62 16(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 12 189N 633W 50 26 13(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 1(40) X(40) 12 189N 633W 64 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 24 195N 653W 34 1 52(53) 13(66) 2(68) X(68) 1(69) X(69) 24 195N 653W 50 X 23(23) 11(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 24 195N 653W 64 X 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 36 201N 673W 34 X 8( 8) 39(47) 10(57) 4(61) 1(62) X(62) 36 201N 673W 50 X 3( 3) 19(22) 6(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) 36 201N 673W 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 48 206N 693W 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 22(40) 11(51) 2(53) X(53) 48 206N 693W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 6(24) 1(25) X(25) 48 206N 693W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 72 215N 735W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 8(41) 2(43) 72 215N 735W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) 1(18) 72 215N 735W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 96 225N 775W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 5(28) 96 225N 775W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 96 225N 775W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 120 235N 815W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 120 235N 815W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 120 235N 815W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55 60 65 65 65 65 65 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC