ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED OCT 19 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TD-16E CIRCULATION... UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS WHERE THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE FLAREUPS HAD FIZZLED OUT BY THIS TIME. THE ITCZ HAS ALSO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE... SUGGESTING THAT THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND AIRMASS STABILIZATION OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS HAS DECREASED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB AND T1.0/25 KT FROM SAB USING A BANDING PATTERN. HOWEVER... A SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS A DATA T-NUMBER OF AT LEAST T2.5/35 KT. A NESDIS/CIRA AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 19/1334Z WAS 1006 MB AND 30 KT. A BLEND OF ALL THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS 30 KT... WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 280/9... EVEN THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN SPEED AS HIGH AS 13 KT. A BROAD BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE BASICALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKENING RIDGE... IN COMBINATION AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW... MAY HELP TO LIFT THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ...BUT THE LARGE-SCALE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DESPITE THE DRY MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 24 HOURS... AND THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST GRADUALLY MOISTEN. THESE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND THEN SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 12.4N 115.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 12.5N 116.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 12.7N 118.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 13.1N 119.9W 35 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 13.5N 121.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 14.1N 122.2W 40 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 19-Oct-2005 20:10:26 UTC