ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 THE CENTER CONTINUES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... BUT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST SOME STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME EASTERLY SHEARING IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER NORMA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THIS SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/4. CURRENTLY THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NORMA. A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST IN 2-3 DAYS...AND ERODE THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT BETWEEN A NORTHERLY TRACK AND A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD COURSE. AS A COMPROMISE I HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST BACK TO THE LEFT SOMEWHAT...SHOWING A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.3N 110.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 15.8N 110.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 16.3N 111.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.9N 111.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 114.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 117.5W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Sep-2005 20:40:22 UTC