ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005 LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF KENNETH DEPICTS A SYMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A MOSTLY ENCLOSED EYEWALL WITH A PARTIAL OPENING IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE KENNETH IS VERY LIKELY A HURRICANE OR CLOSE TO IT. LIKEWISE...THE MOST RECENT CSU-CIRA AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE YIELDS 64 KTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KTS WHICH MAKES KENNETH A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SHIPS INTENSITY AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE KENNETH WILL REMAIN AT CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAYS OVER 27 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. KENNETH WILL START TO WEAKEN IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD AS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND OCEAN SSTS LOWER TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE FORECASTS KEEPING KENNETH A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HRS AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING IT AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3 WHICH AMOUNTS TO A SLOW CRAWL. KENNETH STUBBORNLY REFUSES TO MAKE IT ACROSS 140W. THE SYSTEM IS WEDGED IN WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT KENNETH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BEYOND 72 HRS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS STARTS TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD IN DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 16.4N 139.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 16.3N 139.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 16.1N 140.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 16.1N 140.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 16.5N 141.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 18.0N 143.1W 55 KT 96HR VT 29/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 30/0000Z 20.0N 149.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Sep-2005 03:10:22 UTC