ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSU-B OVERPASS DEPICT THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST IMPROVED VENTILATION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE ESTIMATES. THE GFDL NOW SUGGESTS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL INDICATE A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...IF THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED MORE TOWARD THE STRENGTHENING GFDL SOLUTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN SSM/I OVERPASS INDICATE THAT KENNETH HAS...PERHAPS TEMPORARILY...INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED...280/8. KENNETH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID- LAYER FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS/MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE GATHERED INTO TWO CLUSTERS. THE GFDL/GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE REFLECT A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIFT...INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDN AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT...WITH VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND HEDGES TOWARD THE LATTER CLUSTER. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 15.2N 135.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 15.5N 136.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 15.7N 136.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 15.8N 137.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 138.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 16.0N 139.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 16.0N 140.5W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Sep-2005 08:55:22 UTC