ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 A 1943Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME DISPLACED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. EARLIER SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT DEPICTS 20 TO 30 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AS KENNETH CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS AGREES WITH THE SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/3. THE INTERMITTENT SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY THE MID- LEVEL PERIPHERAL RIDGE BETWEEN JOVA AND KENNETH. THE GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET...FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE AND THE GFDN SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LAYER HIGH TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. KENNETH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...THEN WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A BIT SLOWER...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 13.5N 131.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 13.7N 131.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 14.3N 132.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 14.9N 132.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 15.3N 133.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 16.7N 135.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Sep-2005 02:55:21 UTC