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Hurricane JOVA (Text)

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HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTION WITH VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITHIN A RELATIVELY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. 
DESPITE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 AND T4.0 RESPECTIVELY...WHILE
AFWA REMAINS STEADY AT T4.0. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING JOVA THE FIFTH HURRICANE
OF THE 2005 SEASON. JOVA REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SST
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SUPPORTS FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INCREASING EASTERLY
SHEAR IN THE 24-48 HOUR TIME FRAME WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN JOVA...
WHILE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFDL STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO
82 KT AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL LEAN TOWARD SHIPS AND TAKE THE SYSTEM TO 75 KT IN 24-48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER
SSTS. SHIPS GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A LESS-FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BRING THE INTENSITY DOWN TO
60 KT BY 120 HOURS. 
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/11. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO SLOW AND TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...THEN
DIVERGES IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME...WITH NOGAPS MUCH FASTER
AND THE GFS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE
OFFICAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSEST TO THE
GFDL AND CONSENSUS MODELS...PARTICULARLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. 
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 13.0N 134.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 12.8N 136.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 12.7N 138.2W    75 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 13.5N 141.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 14.5N 143.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 15.5N 145.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 147.5W    60 KT
 
 
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