ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005 THE OVERALL SIZE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SHRINKING AND CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A RAGGED EYE AND T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT 70-KNOT WINDS. HILARY IS ALREADY NEARING LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE ENTIRE CYCLONE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO EXPAND WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD LIKELY FORCE HILARY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME SHALLOW IT WILL LIKELY TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 20.2N 116.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 20.9N 117.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 21.7N 119.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 24.0N 125.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 27/1800Z 24.5N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1800Z 24.5N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 23-Aug-2005 20:40:11 UTC