ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005 HILARY CONTINUES TO HAVE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER WITH A FEW CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BANDS AND A BANDING TYPE EYE. T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS. HILARY IS ALREADY NEARING LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OVER COOL WATERS IN A DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THEN NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME SHALLOW IT WILL LIKELY TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 19.8N 115.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 20.5N 116.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 21.3N 118.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 22.0N 119.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 23.5N 123.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 27/1200Z 24.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1200Z 24.0N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 23-Aug-2005 14:40:14 UTC