ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU-B OVERPASS DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH DEVELOPING BANDS OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH QUADRANTS AND COLDER TOPS. THE WIND RADII HAS BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE SE AND SW QUADRANTS WHERE THE STRONGER BANDS RESIDE USING THE QUIKSCAT DATA. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THE TWO DVORAK 45 KT CLASSIFICATIONS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED OFF OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...WITH STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WEAKENING TREND WITH DISSIPATION IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/10...BASED ON SATELLITE ANIMATION...PREVIOUS MICROWAVE PASSES...AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. AFTERWARD...A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE BAMM AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.9N 107.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 18.9N 108.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 20.2N 110.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 21.0N 111.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 22.3N 115.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 24/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Jul-2005 08:55:07 UTC