ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM DORA HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING AROUND A SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND HAS PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FROM OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT ANY WORSE THAN WHEN A 40-KT SHIP REPORT WAS RECEIVED EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA IS BEGINNING TO EXERT MORE OF A WESTWARD INFLUENCE ON DORA...POSSIBLY AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO. OF COURSE... ANY WOBBLE TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE...BUT BY 48 HOURS THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO TOWARD COLDER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE BAM MODEL CONSENSUS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN IMPROVING...BUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MEXICAN COAST HAS LIKELY BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THAT CAN SPIN UP THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX...BUT ANY SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM STARTS PULLING AWAY FROM MEXICO...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL SOLUTION...AND LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS DORA UP TO 62 KT IN 48 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 17.2N 101.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 17.7N 102.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 18.4N 103.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 105.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 107.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 20.0N 110.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 10/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 05-Jul-2005 03:25:03 UTC