ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE ACAPULCO RADAR INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 04/00Z WERE A CONSENSUS T1.5/25 KT...BUT RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A TIGHT BANDING FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND A 04/0014Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A TIGHT SURFACE CIRCULATION AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/05. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILL IN AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED BY 36 HOURS OR SO. A MORE WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLDER WATER AND WEAKENS...AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM BAM AND GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE TO MEXICAN COAST IN 24-36 HOURS...WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. TD-3E IS A SMALL AND COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. RIGHT NOW...A STRONG BURST OF -75 TO -80C TOPS HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT OUTFLOW TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN MOVING OVER COLDER WATER AFTERWARDS...WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THIS CYCLONE FROM REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0400Z 14.8N 99.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 15.4N 100.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 16.2N 101.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 16.9N 102.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 17.8N 103.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 106.8W 40 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 04-Jul-2005 04:40:03 UTC