ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2005 THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATIONS OF CALVIN HAVE DETERIORATED DRAMATICALLY THIS EVENING. ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED. TWO MICROWAVE PASSES NEAR 01Z INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 50 NMI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHAT ROTATION CAN BE SEEN ALOFT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT CALVIN IS NEAR MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. CALVIN STILL HAS 24-36 HOURS OVER WARM WATER...SO THE CONVECTION COULD WELL RETURN...BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN ANYTIME SOON...AND CALVIN IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT UNTIL ITS INEVITABLE DEMISE. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL CALVIN REACHES COOLER WATERS. CALVIN REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...295/9. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BASED ON THE DETERIORATING STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IN AN EASTERLY SHEARING FLOW...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CALVIN ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THAT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED SOON. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 15.8N 101.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 16.2N 103.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 17.1N 107.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 01/0000Z 17.5N 112.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 02/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/0000Z 17.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Dec-2005 17:40:26 UTC