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Hurricane FRANCES (Text)

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HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062004
0300Z SUN SEP 05 2004
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND
BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  79.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE  60SE  50SW  75NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
34 KT.......175NE 125SE 125SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 350SE 175SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  79.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  79.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.3N  80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...175NE 125SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.3N  82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...100NE  75SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.5N  84.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE  75SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.7N  85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  50SE  50SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  75SE  75SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 33.2N  87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 36.0N  87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 40.5N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N  79.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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