ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004 THE CENTER IS STILL ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVECTION TO YIELD DATA T-NUMBERS OF 3.0...2.5...AND 2.5 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND SINCE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. IN FACT...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS BECOMING MORE SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE REVISED DOWNWARD. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11. THERE IS STILL NO CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT KAY'S MOTION IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 600 N MI TO ITS WEST. THUS FAR... DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY WELL. GIVEN THE LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF KAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT SEEMS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT SHOW A FAST ENOUGH WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST IN CASE THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE TURNS OUT TO BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CORRECT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 14.7N 115.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 14.8N 117.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 14.9N 119.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 15.0N 123.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 15.0N 129.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 15.0N 132.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 05-Oct-2004 14:35:17 UTC