ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004 VISIBLE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE 20 NM EYE IS BECOMING CLOUD-FILLED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATES WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH QUADRANTS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 102 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM TAFB. ENHANCED BD INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEST QUADRANT...AND THE DATA-T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 77 KT AND 90 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 95 KT...DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE VISIBLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JAVIER TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS WHICH DECREASES JAVIER TO A 20 KT REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. INITIAL MOTION IS 320/5 KT. AS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD DRIFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER MEXICO SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AROUND THE 72 HOUR PERIOD...A REDUCTION IN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BEYOND DAY 3...JAVIER SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ULTIMATELY...WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 20.1N 111.2W 95 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 20.9N 111.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 22.0N 112.9W 85 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 23.2N 113.9W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 24.7N 114.7W 70 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 29.5N 115.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 21/1800Z 31.5N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Sep-2004 20:46:02 UTC