ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU SEP 16 2004 THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY OF JAVIER SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BETTER BANDING FEATURES AND THE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS MORE CLEARLY EVIDENT THAN FROM PREVIOUS IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTED A MORE RAGGED SYSTEM. AN AVERAGE AMONG CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS GIVES JAVIER AN APPROXIMATE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 100 KTS. THE ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE RUN BY AFWA ALSO INDICATES 100 KTS...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7. JAVIER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST DEEPENS AND MOVES JAVIER NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PUNTA EUGENIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MOVES JAVIER PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE AND WITH WIND RADII EXTENDING 100 MILES OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT THESE COASTAL AREAS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM 24-72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM 0-72 HRS REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED AS IT FOLLOWS CONU...GUNS...AND GUNA. HOWEVER...IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A MORE NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK WAS MADE AS JAVIER MOVES INTO A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS JAVIER MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. AFTER 72 HOURS...JAVIER WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES CLOSER TO THE DEEPENING MID-LEVEL WEST COAST TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE WHICH WEAKENS JAVIER TO A TROPICAL STORM BEYOND 48 HOURS AND FURTHER WEAKENS IT TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FORECASTER SISKO/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 19.8N 110.2W 100 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 20.6N 110.7W 90 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 21.8N 111.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 23.0N 112.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 24.1N 113.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 26.5N 115.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 28.6N 115.0W 30 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 21/0600Z 31.0N 114.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Sep-2004 09:06:05 UTC