ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004 INFRARED ANIMATION SHOWS THAT ISIS CONTINUES TO HAVE INTERMITTANT BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. WIND SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO BE LIGHT. THE STRATOCUMULUS INFLOW CONTINUES AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN A STEADY STATE AS FAR AS INTENSITY IS CONCERNED...WARM SSTS...LIGHT SHEAR...WORKING AGAINST STABLE ENTRAINED AIR. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 35 KT FROM KGWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KT. THE FORECAST INTENSITY ALSO STAYS AT 45 KTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION FOR 0600 UTC WAS STATIONARY...BUT FOR 0900 UTC WILL BE 270/2 KT. ISIS HAS SLOWED DOWN AND WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO DRIFT AROUND. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS A DRIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 16.5N 129.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 16.5N 129.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 130.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 16.7N 131.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.9N 131.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 132.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 18.0N 132.3W 45 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 18.2N 132.8W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Sep-2004 08:45:38 UTC