ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 05 2004 HOWARD HAS BEEN ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 18 HOURS AND DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS ARE 1.0 FROM AFWA AND SAB AND 1.5 FROM TAFB. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 24 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND BENEATH STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DISSIPATION OF HOWARD'S REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST IN 48 HOURS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST OR 325/5 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST OF THE REMANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION HOWARD. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 25.7N 119.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 06/0000Z 26.3N 119.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 06/1200Z 26.7N 120.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 07/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Sep-2004 14:54:51 UTC