ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT AUG 28 2004 A SOLID CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD...APPROXIMATELY -80C...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST BENEATH THESE CLOUDS. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE 3.0...AND 3.5 FROM SAB....SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. GEORGETTE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED AS EXPECTED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/9. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE STORM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...GEORGETTE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SUCCUMBED TO THE COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING SHOULD ALLOW THE CIRCULATION TO BE STEERED TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ...AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND MOVES GEORGETTE DUE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS. ONLY THE UKMET DIFFERS AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD PATH WITH QUICKER WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATER. GEORGETTE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE SOON THEREAFTER. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... BUT THIS SEEMS MOOT SINCE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE COLDER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT IRONICALLY ENDS UP BEING CLOSE TO THE GFDL INTENSITY BETWEEN 3-5 DAYS. DISSIPATION IS PROBABLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AT WHICH TIME THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING ELONGATED AND DIFFUSE. FORECASTER BERG/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 18.9N 117.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 119.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.3N 120.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 19.7N 122.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 20.1N 124.9W 35 KT 72HR VT 31/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 20.5N 133.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 02/1800Z 20.5N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Aug-2004 20:33:41 UTC