ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 02 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE AN IMPROVED BANDING STRUCTURE BEFORE UPGRADING IT. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 12.4N 129.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 12.8N 130.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 13.5N 132.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 14.4N 134.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 15.3N 135.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 140.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 17.0N 144.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 07/0600Z 17.0N 148.0W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 02-Aug-2004 08:52:33 UTC