ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI JUL 30 2004 DARBY IS NOW A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM AFWA...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 1446Z SHOWED A 50 KT VECTOR NORTH OF THE CENTER. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 50 KT...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. DARBY REMAINS SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DARBY ON A BASICALLY WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD IF IT STILL HAS ANY VERTICAL DEPTH. THE NOGAPS...WHICH KEEPS A DARBY STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...NOW CALLS FOR LESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN THAN EARLIER. OTHER LARGE-SCALE MODELS...WHICH FORECAST A WEAKER SYSTEM... CONTINUE SHOW A MORE WESTERLY MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TRACK FOR 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...PARTICULARLY AT 96 AND 120 HR...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS CONU GUIDANCE. THE TRACK COULD BE SHIFTED MORE SOUTHWARD IF DARBY WEAKENS FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. DARBY IS CURRENTLY OVER 24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK CARRIES THE SYSTEM OVER INCREASING SSTS AFTER 24 HR...LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD AFFECT DARBY AROUND THAT TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DARBY TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO CALL FOR DARBY TO BE DISSIPATING BY 72 HR AND A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW THEREAFTER. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 18.7N 133.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 18.9N 135.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 31/1800Z 19.1N 138.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 19.2N 141.3W 25 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 19.3N 144.3W 25 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 19.5N 149.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 153.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 156.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 30-Jul-2004 20:42:28 UTC