ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI JUL 23 2004 WHILE THE OVERALL DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ALSO... 23/0927Z TRMM AND 23/1011Z AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN INDICATING. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5...OR 35 KT...CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND THE TIGHT INNER STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE TWO RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/07. THE TREND IN THE MICROWAVE POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS WOULD SUGGEST THAT CELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN TO AROUND 5-6 KT. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY MOTION DUE TO THE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. WHILE THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS HAS REMAINED ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE CELIA WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES TO THE NORTH. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAKENING VERTICAL STRUCTURE. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FORCED MAINLY WESTWARD BY THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO GFS AND GFDN SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF 35 KT WINDS IN THE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOW BEING DRAWN INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AS SEEN IN NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...A FASTER WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE WITH VERTICAL SHEAR LESS THAN 5 KT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY BETWEEN 35-40 KT THROUGH 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SUB-25C SST WATER THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER AFTER 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS EXPECTED. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 16.1N 125.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 127.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 16.2N 129.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 25/0000Z 16.2N 130.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 25/1200Z 16.3N 132.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Jul-2004 14:12:24 UTC