ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI JUL 23 2004 CELIA HAS A SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN AND CONSISTS OF A FEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A DISRUPTED OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON EARLIER 0307Z SSMI WHICH SHOWS A VERY SMALL AREA OF 35 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS NEARING COOLER WATERS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT CELIA IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LOW. THEREFORE... WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER... A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS PRODUCING INTERMETTENT CONVECTION. CELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS MOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.4N 125.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 16.5N 128.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/1800Z 16.6N 130.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 25/0600Z 16.5N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Jul-2004 08:32:24 UTC