ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON JUL 19 2004 THERE IS NO GOOD CONSENSUS ABOUT THE LOCATION OR INTENSITY OF THE DEPRESSION THIS MORNING FROM THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION AGENCIES. DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 2.5...AND THE LOCATIONS VARY BY ABOUT 90 MILES. GIVEN THIS...AND WITH FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES JUST STARTING TO COME IN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND MOTION LARGELY FOLLOW CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...SO THE DEPRESSION MAY HAVE REACHED STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...I PREFER TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY BEFORE UPGRADING THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST 72 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS IN THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION UP TO 55 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE MOTION CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BOTH THE NOGAPS AND GFNI SHOW A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWARD MOTION BUT THE NOGAPS AT LEAST DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE THE CYCLONE INITIALIZED WELL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 14.5N 115.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 14.7N 117.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 15.1N 119.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 16.0N 123.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 127.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 16.5N 131.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 16.5N 136.0W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Jul-2004 14:42:22 UTC