ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED JUL 14 2004 BLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ONLY MINIMAL CONVECTION REMAINS WITH THE CYCLONE...MAINLY IN SMALL PATCHES NEAR THE CENTER AND IN AN OUTER BAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITE OVERPASSES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD PROVIDE BETTER DATA ON THE INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/15. BLAS IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND HEADING FOR A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. IF BLAS WAS A STRONG HURRICANE OVER WARM WATER...IT WOULD TRY TO RECURVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SINCE IT IS INSTEAD WEAKENING OVER COLD WATER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DECELERATION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS BLAS WEAKENS AND THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THIS IS THE SCENARIO OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND BASED ON THEM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLAS IS NOW OVER 23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE WATERS GET EVEN COLDER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THUS WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR...IF NOT SOONER. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW COULD SURVIVE THROUGH ABOUT 96 HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 22.4N 117.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 23.4N 119.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 24.0N 121.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 16/0000Z 24.5N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 16/1200Z 24.8N 124.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 17/1200Z 25.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/1200Z 25.0N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 14-Jul-2004 14:42:22 UTC