ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT MAY 22 2004 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTED TWO HOOKING CONVECTIVE BANDS EAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOW WEAKENING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AGATHA. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LATER...COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED STABILITY SHOULD BRING ABOUT WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE...AND THE BEST GUESS FOR INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...RESULTING IN A COLLAPSE OF THE STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE MOTION IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE SLIGHTLY EAST OF MY TRACK. THE 26 DEG C SST ISOTHERM IS NEAR 18N LATITUDE. THUS IF AGATHA TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD COURSE THAN EXPECTED...IT WOULD PROBABLY WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 15.9N 109.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.6N 110.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 17.2N 110.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 17.7N 111.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 18.0N 111.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 18.0N 112.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 18.0N 112.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 18.0N 112.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:57 UTC