ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004 DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER NON-SYMMETRIC...APPARENTLY DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 105 KT. IN CONTRAST...THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT ANALYZE VERY MUCH SHEAR UNTIL 48 HOURS AND OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW ADDITONAL WEAKENING UNTIL 36 HOURS IN RESPECT TO THIS GUIDANCE. IF THE PRESENT APPARENT SHEAR HOLDS UP...KARL COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST. KARL IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER COLDER WATERS BY 72 HOURS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/14. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. KARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION IN A DAY OR TWO AROUND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND THEN GET DRAWN TOWARD A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL MID-LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 36 HOURS AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 22.9N 48.6W 105 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 24.9N 49.4W 105 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 27.6N 49.1W 105 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 47.4W 100 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 34.1N 45.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 44.2N 42.2W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 25/1800Z 52.5N 37.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 26/1800Z 57.5N 25.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Sep-2004 20:43:27 UTC