ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10 ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL WHICH BECOMES ERODED BY 72 HOURS FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KARL IS LOOKING GOOD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE AND BANDING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/90/77 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS AFTER WHICH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.2N 39.3W 90 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.1N 40.7W 100 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.1N 42.9W 110 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 17.9N 44.7W 115 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 46.5W 115 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.8N 48.0W 110 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 27.0N 48.0W 105 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 34.0N 45.0W 90 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Sep-2004 14:23:17 UTC