ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF KARL THIS AFTERNOON. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE ALL CONVERGING ON T3.5 AND I WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 55 KT. KARL RETAINS WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOWS STRONG ANTICYCLONIC AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. WHILE KARL MARKS TIME OVER WARM WATERS IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 320/12...AS KARL HAS BEEN EXECUTING AN UNEXPECTED RIGHT TURN TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 850 NM NORTH OF KARL...WHICH MIGHT ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THERE IS STILL A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...SO I DON'T THINK THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNTIL KARL APPROACHES A LARGE AND POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT THAT TIME KARL SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 13.4N 36.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 14.4N 37.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 15.3N 39.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 16.3N 40.4W 85 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.2N 41.8W 90 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 44.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 46.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 29.5N 46.0W 95 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 17-Sep-2004 20:33:16 UTC