ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 365 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. AT 09/00Z...SHIP FQFM LOCATED 120 NMI NORTH...AND SHIP FQWZ LOCATED 140 NMI EAST...OF THE CENTER REPORTED 20-KT SURFACE WINDS AND SEAS RANGING FROM 13-19 FEET. BOTH REPORTS WERE OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...A 08/2131Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED 25-30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/09. T.D. TEN IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT ...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATOPICAL LOW AND/OR FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS BY 72-96 HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE AZORES. HOWEVER...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE BURSTS THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT THE OVERALL SHEAR PATTERN AND RELATIVELY COOL SSTS FAVOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 35 KT AND 43 KT IN 12- AND 24-HOURS...RESPECTIVELY. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 35.8N 34.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 36.6N 32.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 37.2N 31.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 37.8N 28.9W 30 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 38.3N 26.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 12/0600Z 39.5N 23.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 09-Sep-2004 08:32:54 UTC